The San Francisco tourism forecast projects record visitor spending of $10.6 billion in 2027, although arrivals may remain below the 2019 peak. San Francisco Travel figures show how international travel, hotels, conventions and events could shape the city’s tourism recovery in the coming year.
Key Takeaways
- Visitor spending is projected to reach $10.6 billion in 2027, up from $9.94 billion in 2026.
- San Francisco expects 25 million visitors, about 1.2 million fewer than in 2019.
- International overnight spending across San Francisco and San Mateo counties could rise 7.3% to $5.46 billion.
- Moscone Center’s 33 scheduled events are expected to generate more than 640,000 hotel room nights.
San Francisco Travel released the forecast Aug. 26 at the Visitor Impact Summit in the Curran Theatre. The city could break its nominal visitor-spending record before recovering its previous visitor count.
Projected 2027 spending is $660 million above the $9.94 billion expected in 2026. Visitor volume would rise by a smaller margin, from 24.4 million to 25 million. Spending per trip, visitor mix and lodging prices may therefore carry more weight than headcount alone.
“Our convention calendar continues to perform, and we’re encouraged by the growth in business and domestic leisure travel right alongside it,” San Francisco Travel President and CEO Anna Marie Presutti said.
San Francisco Tourism Forecast Separates Spending From Volume
San Francisco recorded about $9.6 billion in direct visitor spending and 26.2 million visitors in 2019. The 2027 projection would place spending roughly $1 billion above that benchmark while leaving visitor volume about 1.2 million short.
The spending comparison uses current dollar amounts. It does not establish whether the projected total would exceed 2019 after adjusting for inflation. That distinction makes the $10.6 billion figure a nominal record rather than evidence that every part of the visitor economy has fully recovered.
2025 results provide context. San Francisco welcomed 23.7 million visitors, who spent $9.4 billion. Tourism supported an estimated 63,900 jobs and generated $655 million in city tax revenue, while 60% of visitor spending occurred outside hotels.
International Travel Carries the Largest Spending Increase
Tourism Economics projects 2.42 million overnight international visitors to San Francisco and San Mateo counties in 2027, up 5.2% from 2026. Spending by those travelers is forecast to increase 7.3% to $5.46 billion.
Those figures cover both counties, while the headline visitor total applies to San Francisco. They should not be calculated as matching shares of the same geographic market.
San Francisco Travel said its 10 leading international markets are projected to grow in visitors and spending. Its earlier outlook identified Mexico, the United Kingdom, China, Canada and India as the five largest source markets, but the August release did not provide separate 2027 totals.
Hotel and Convention Data Support Continued Growth
Hotel occupancy is forecast to rise from 70.7% in 2026 to 72.1% in 2027. The average daily rate is expected to increase from $266.16 to $271.43, while revenue per available room, or RevPAR, would move from $188.06 to $195.61.
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The association expects RevPAR to increase 14.1% in 2026, following a similar 2025 gain. The smaller implied increase for 2027 would extend lodging growth if the forecast holds.
Moscone Center is expected to host 33 events in 2027, five fewer than in 2026. Bookings are projected to generate more than 640,000 hotel room nights, compared with 656,000 this year. The narrow difference suggests event size and duration will remain important.
The 2026 calendar showed how large events can concentrate travel demand. A Super Bowl activity estimate described higher hotel occupancy and visitor activity across the Bay Area during the event period.
Major Events Extend the 2027 Visitor Calendar
The 2027 schedule includes SailGP on San Francisco Bay on April 3 and 4. The WNBA All-Star Game is set for Chase Center on July 31, its first Bay Area appearance. Related programming includes July 30 competitions and WNBA Live at Moscone Center.
Vogue World is scheduled to hold its 2027 edition in San Francisco in early fall, although no date or venue was announced. The three events give the city separate draws across sailing, basketball and fashion, but no individual spending estimates were included in the tourism forecast.
Regional agencies prepared a World Cup travel plan involving BART, Muni, Caltrain and VTA. The 2026 framework was designed to connect airports, hotels, entertainment districts and event locations.
The Record Retains an Important Qualification
The San Francisco tourism forecast points to higher spending, stronger international demand and improving hotel measures in 2027. It also shows that total visitation may remain below 2019 and that the spending record is not adjusted for inflation. Those qualifications provide the clearest measure of what has recovered and what remains below the earlier peak.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does San Francisco expect from tourism in 2027?
The San Francisco tourism forecast projects 25 million visitors and $10.6 billion in visitor spending during 2027. Both figures would exceed the association’s updated expectations for 2026.
Would the $10.6 billion total set a record?
It would exceed the approximately $9.6 billion in direct visitor spending recorded in 2019 on a nominal basis. The forecast does not show whether the 2027 total would also be a record after adjusting for inflation.
How many international visitors are expected?
Tourism Economics projects 2.42 million overnight international visitors to San Francisco and San Mateo counties in 2027. Their spending is expected to reach $5.46 billion, although those figures cover a broader geographic area than the citywide visitor total.
What are the hotel projections for 2027?
Hotel occupancy is forecast at 72.1%, with an average daily rate of $271.43. Revenue per available room is projected to reach $195.61.
Which major events are scheduled for 2027?
The public calendar includes SailGP in April, the WNBA All-Star Game in July and Vogue World in early fall. Moscone Center is also expected to host 33 events generating more than 640,000 room nights.
